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Coronavirus : Update 8 from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

Well, as I write this, the WHO official global epicenter has shifted to the US with cases exceeding China and Italy as predicted. I guess I’m going to have to change the title of these posts… Here are the usual charts but with the world figures added for context (on the second axis, which is about 10x the first axis). As you can see, Italy is now slowing relative to the world numbers, but the US is accelerating strongly : As we’ve discussed before, every country is different (population density,…read more

Coronavirus : Update 7 from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

G’day. Three short topics again today, starting with the usual graphs, this time shown with normal and log scales. The log scales are useful as they are exponential, which means an exponential curve should appear as a straight line. Anything curving down is slowing down : So you can see that Italy is slowing down. The US, UK and Germany are holding steady, but the US is accumulating cases the fastest. This despite the fact that NY continues to see the overwhelming majority of incidents : My offset chart is…read more

Coronavirus : Update 6 from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

OK, three short topics today. First, an update on the ‘delay’ topic from Update 4 in which I offset the UK, US, and German curves in relation to the Italian timeline. I have continued the plot and it now looks like Germany and the US are accelerating faster than Italy did. The UK remains aligned with Italy’s trajectory. A steeper curve means faster transmission, or more realistic numbers due to better testing. Given the fact that the US is still testing per capita at only 2.5% the rate of Italy,…read more

Coronavirus : Update 5 from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

As the days and weeks pass, the number of people who have recovered from the virus will become significant. Today in Italy, that number is 2,749 : 56% of all closed cases, but this will normalize out to a number greater that 95% as seen in China : Il Post explains that there are three levels of recovery defined by the Italian Consiglio Superiore di Sanità : 1. Clinically recovered : when a patient no longer exhibits symptoms of the virus (fever, sore throat, difficulty breathing, etc). It’s possible that…read more

Coronavirus : Update 4 from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

For anyone still wondering if Italy is a special case, underprepared, slow to respond, or just unlucky, I have two graphs for you that I prepared using data from here. The first chart shows the cumulative daily totals in the countries where family and friends live. It appears to show 4 countries experiencing apparently starkly different epidemics : In the second chart I offset each curve by the number of days of delay between the explosion in Italy and the corresponding uptick in each country. Gone are the differences. It…read more

Coronavirus : Update 3 from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

Apologies for the change in tone, but I felt compelled to write something regarding the science driving the response to the virus in the UK, which is different to the way the rest of the world is handling it.Like China, Italy saw an explosion of cases in a concentrated area of the country which quickly overwhelmed hospitals.  Both countries ring-fenced those busy towns in order to avoid the uncontrolled spread of the disease.  The level of China’s military crackdown allowed them to stop there, whereas Italy’s democratic government had not…read more

Coronavirus : Update 2 from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

Only 4 days have passed since the last mail, but the situation has unfolded rapidly : – Monday morning, all sport facilities (ski resorts) were closed, and all public gatherings of 2 or more people were banned. – Monday afternoon, the 11 red zones were extended to the whole country – Wednesday, all shops, restaurants and bars were shut down All 60 million people are now confined to their homes.  Any travel must be documented and police are performing regular spot checks.Some companies have asked their employees to consider this…read more

Coronavirus : Update from the Epicenter

Posted by in Coronavirus

This is the first of a series of mails that I started sending out to friends and family when it became apparent that the UK and US media were not always being fully transparent, politicians in those countries were, well, being politicians, and the few days or weeks of grace those countries had been granted were not being used to protect the public. The Covid-19 coronavirus is similar to the flu in the way it transmits and the symptoms it provokes, with the following differences :1. Flu has a shorter…read more

…to Chicago

Posted by in Travel Nightmare

This was a doozy. Scheduled for a Monday morning flight landing in Chicago at 1pm, I received a series of texts from Lufthansa rescheduling me through London (3 hour delay) and then Rome (6 hour delay) – all due to a storm that was forecast to hit Northern Europe the next day. Knowing my chickens (as the Italians say), the last thing I wanted to do was get stuck in Rome, and so I began calling Lufthansa offices in order to better understand my options. Italy : no answer. Germany…read more

…from Vegas

Posted by in Travel Nightmare

A new record! Total accrued flight delays of 18 hours within a single 4-day business trip! First the baggage handlers broke the door seal on the plane in Frankfurt, requiring us to deplane, change aircraft, leave for Denver 8 hours late, miss the last flight to Vegas and finally arrive 15 hours after our original ETA. On the way home the valve that balances the fuel between both wings stuck (fortunately just before takeoff). We sat on the plane for 3 hours while someone hit it with a hammer before…read more

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